Early climate models: accurate predictions that stand the test of time

Early climate models were far more accurate than many realise. Decades ago, scientists like Syukuro Manabe predicted key patterns of global warming – from rising global temperatures and stratospheric cooling to Arctic amplification, faster warming on land, and the delayed warming of the Southern Ocean. Today, observations confirm these forecasts almost exactly, proving that even the earliest models captured the core physics of our changing climate, and strengthening our confidence in the projections we rely on now.

5 forecasts early climate models got right – the evidence is all around you